The Shift
The 2026 Dealer P&L Is Being Rewritten in Real Time
Every dealer principal and GM is running the same math this year. Tariffs have added more than $35 billion in cumulative cost to the industry since 2025. Automakers have absorbed most of that, with dealers absorbing another 4.5 percent of the price increases, and consumers picking up the rest. The average suggested retail is up 10.4 percent. Imported vehicles are running $5,000 to $8,900 higher per unit. Monthly payments are near record highs, and nearly one in five buyers are now carrying a payment over $1,000.
At the same time, days supply is polarizing. Toyota and Honda are sitting near 24 to 28 days. Volvo is at 93. EV inventory is aging at most rooftops, and 300,000 EVs are coming back from lease in 2026, up more than 200 percent from last year. Industry forecasts are pointing to roughly a 12 percent drop in dealership profits this year, even with steady sales. The 2024 CDK outage exposed the other half of the problem: when the DMS goes down, the store goes down. Fifteen thousand dealers ran on spreadsheets and sticky notes for weeks. New car sales fell 50 percent at affected stores that month.
The dealers pulling ahead are not waiting on the next DMS release. They are building a layer on top of it. A unified customer view across sales, service, parts, and F&I that holds together when the DMS is up, when it is down, and when the customer expects a text response at 9pm on a Sunday. Microsoft Dynamics 365 is where that layer gets built, because it already integrates with the productivity and AI tools your people use every day.
Profits are forecast to drop 12%
Unit volume is holding but gross per unit is normalizing, overhead has stayed high, and tariffs are eroding what is left. The math has shifted from growth to retention and efficiency.
Fixed ops is now the profit engine
Service and parts now produce 48 to 59 percent of total gross profit at the six largest public dealer groups, and it is the only segment posting consistent same-store growth. CX in service is no longer optional.
The DMS is not enough
The CDK outage reminded the industry what a single-point-of-failure DMS really costs. 65 percent of consumers now rate digital features as critical to the service experience, and the DMS was never built for that layer.